The numbers suggest the midrange is critical to playoff success—yet nobody’s noticed.
Over the last two decades, analytics-driven basketball has largely eliminated the midrange shot, and for good reason. Statistically, on a per-possession basis, the three-point shot is significantly more efficient. Over thousands of possessions spanning an 82-game regular season, this math undeniably holds up. NBA data shows midrange attempts dropped dramatically from 31% of all shots in 2000 to just 13% by 2024.
However, a fascinating trend emerges when we shift our focus to the playoffs. Mid Range shot attempts consistently increase, while three-point attempts decline. Why does this happen?
The explanation boils down to one simple concept: variance. Three-point shots inherently involve greater variance due to their higher difficulty and longer range. Over a large sample, such as the regular season, this variance balances itself out, validating the three-pointer as a superior shot mathematically. Yet playoff basketball operates differently. With significantly smaller samples—often just a handful of possessions—each shot carries amplified importance, and higher variance becomes risky.
We’ve seen vivid examples of this in recent history. Recall the 2018 Houston Rockets famously missing 27 consecutive three-pointers in Game 7 against the Warriors, effectively costing them a championship shot. Similarly, the Boston Celtics this year struggled immensely from beyond the arc in the first two games of their second-round series against the Knicks, ultimately contributing to their early exit.
Moreover, this year's playoff data underscores the practical value of the midrange. The top six teams in the league in percentage of points scored from three-point range during the playoffs were all eliminated early from playoff contention. Conversely, both the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers, who rank within the top four teams in terms of percentage of points from mid range shots, experienced significant playoff success, highlighting an important playoff trend.
Individual stars have recognized and capitalized on this midrange advantage:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led guards with remarkable efficiency, converting 54.5% of his playoff shots from 4-14 feet on 6.3 attempts per game in 2024.
Kevin Durant showcased elite proficiency, hitting 55.1% of his long midrange shots (10-22 feet) and an exceptional 58% from short midrange distances (4-9 feet) during his playoff run.
Luka Dončić averaged an impressive 1.12 points per possession on floaters and step-back jumpers from the short midrange (inside 14 feet) during the 2024 Western Conference Finals, significantly outperforming his three-point production at 0.96 points per possession.
What these stats highlight is that while teams shooting three-pointers may possess a higher expected value over many attempts, their performance fluctuates significantly in smaller samples. Coaches, acutely aware of this small-sample fallacy, often prefer the reliability offered by mid range shots, especially when each playoff possession is critical.
The simple truth emerges clearly: while three-point shooting undoubtedly rules the modern NBA's regular-season landscape, the midrange never truly died—it simply lay dormant, waiting for the moments that matter most. In clutch playoff scenarios, reliability beats variance, bringing basketball’s most overlooked weapon, the midrange jumper, back into crucial prominence.