Sophomore forward JT Toppin had just wrapped up a fantastic season, earning Big 12 Player of the Year and Consensus second team All-American honors. He led the Texas Tech Red Raiders in points, rebounds, blocks, and an Elite Eight berth in the NCAA Tournament. Most mock drafts projected Toppin as a late first-round pick in the year’s NBA draft.
However, on April 9th, Toppin made a shocking announcement: he was returning to Texas Tech for another season of college hoops. Why would Toppin pass up on the NBA? Well, the answer became clear when it was reported that Toppin was expected to be paid approximately $4 million through a Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deal. This was more than Toppin would have earned as a rookie in the NBA had he opted to go that route.
NIL has completely changed the landscape of college basketball, and Toppin isn’t the only one. Baylor freshman Robert Wright III transferred to BYU in a $3.5 million NIL deal. AJ Dybantsa, the #1 overall rated recruit in the class of 2025, has an enormous NIL deal close to $7 million, including deals with Nike and Red Bull.
Player movement in college basketball is more frequent than ever, but is it actually benefiting the players’ performance on the court? Let’s take a look at the data.
Top Transfers From 2024
For simplicity reasons, let’s take data from the top 30 transfers from last year’s portal, according to On3. To measure individual performance, we will use minutes played per game (MPG) and player efficiency rating (PER). According to John Hollinger, PER is the rating of a player’s per-minute productivity. It uses a formula that returns positives for stats like field goals made, assists, steals, and negatives for stats like turnovers, missed shots, and personal fouls. PER is also pace-adjusted to standardize for slower and faster-paced teams. Additionally, it is important to note that PER is not a complete measure of a player’s impact, as some things cannot be recorded on the stat sheet.
Looking at the bar chart above shows the difference in MPG from the 2023-2024 season and the 2024-2025 season. More than half of the players saw a decrease in minutes played. The most extreme case was Cade Tyson, who went from 31.6 minutes per game at Belmont to 7.9 minutes per game at UNC, a difference of -23.7. The biggest positive was PJ Haggerty, who saw his minutes per game increase by 2.9 at Memphis.
Now, looking at the PER differences, again, we see most players experienced a negative difference. JT Toppin had the greatest jump, with a positive 4.7 increase from New Mexico to Texas Tech.
(bottom part of graph)
Lastly, let’s measure the impact of the player on the overall success of the team using the win shares statistic. In the horizontal bar chart above, we see that eight of the thirty had a positive win shares difference, including Tennessee transfer Chaz Lanier.
Transfer Fallout: Drop In Production?
Based on all the data, it seems that transferring is actually having a negative impact on players’ on-court performance. Most players are experiencing a decrease in individual and team success. However, our sample size of just 30 of the top transfers is significantly small considering that over 2,000 players entered the transfer portal in 2024. These players were already stars at their previous teams, which means that their stats might not change much. Our data doesn’t account for lower-ranked players who may see an increased role at their new schools.
Context is also important here. 13 of the 30 players transferred from mid-major schools; therefore, playing against better competition can cause stat deflation. For example, Amari Williams, who transferred from Drexel to Kentucky, saw his stats fall across the board in the graphs above despite being one of Kentucky’s best players. Win shares are also a deceiving stat, as some players missed a significant number of games with injuries. Tucker Devries had a -4.4 difference in win shares, however, he only played in 8 games.
Stats don’t always tell the whole story. For example, Chaz Lanier did not have a significant difference on paper after transferring. Yet, Lanier led Tennessee to the Elite Eight and won some impressive individual accolades, such as the Jerry West Award. He also entered the conversation as an NBA draft pick at Tennessee, something that likely would not have happened had he stayed at North Florida. So, although his stats didn’t improve much, his career progressed greatly through the transfer portal.
It is important to point out, though, that some players just performed poorly at their new schools, such as AJ Storr and Rylan Griffen. Both transferred from high-major schools and played the entire season, so outside factors like stat deflation or games missed don’t affect their stats. They are examples of the transfer portal negatively impacting on-court performance.
NIL vs. NBA: Rethinking the Endgame for Hoops Stars
The transfer portal has shown mixed results for its players, but does it even matter? Is the NBA even the end goal for players now? NIL deals are giving players a chance at generational wealth without ever joining the professional ranks. And players don’t even have to be top stars to get big paychecks. Rodney Rice, the third-leading scorer for the Maryland Terrapins this past season, landed an NIL deal worth $3 million with USC. Xavier Booker, who played less than 13 minutes a game at Michigan State, signed a NIL deal rumored to be around $1.5 million with UCLA. Only approximately 1% of Division 1 College Basketball players make the NBA. Therefore, it makes sense for players to earn as much as they can before their playing careers end.
NIL has completely reshaped the landscape of college basketball, empowering athletes to build personal brands and secure financial stability long before entering the professional ranks. For many top players, the urgency to reach the NBA has diminished, as lucrative endorsement deals, sponsorships, and social media influence now offer a pathway to generational wealth while still in school. This shift has not only changed individual motivations but also altered the power dynamics between players, universities, and the league itself. In today’s game, success is no longer defined solely by a spot on an NBA roster—college athletes can now thrive, both on the court and financially, without ever stepping onto a professional hardwood floor.